Aug 16, 2011

State College, PA; - According to WeatherBELL Analytics Chief Meteorologist Joe Bastardi, a frenzy of named storms resulting in multiple hurricanes is about to be unleashed between Aug 25 and mid-September, and could pose a threat to the US during the time period.

“Rarely and certainly not since 2008 when 6 named storms in a row struck the US do we see the Atlantic basin ready to become a focal point of the Earth’s tropical activity right at the height of the hurricane season,” said WeatherBELL Analytics Meteorologist Joe Bastardi.

Bastardi said that the overall global pattern favors well below-normal activity in the Southwest-Pacific over the next 3 weeks, which means nature must use the Atlantic and Eastern-Pacific basins to produce the bulk of the tropical activity.

“In a season of weak storms where 4 of 7 so far were non-tropical in origin, a frenzy of 5 to 7 true tropical storms are likely to emerge,” Bastardi said. “Almost all them are likely to reach hurricane status -- and 3 or 4 of them could impact the US coast.  It appears that this very active period that is emerging could rival the 2008 frenzy of storms.”

The forecast period of heightened tropical activity from late August to mid-September was one of WeatherBELL Analytics' pre-season analogs.

While the Gulf of Mexico was the center point of activity in 2008, the current pattern suggests that the Gulf may represent the west side of the action this season, while New England is the Northeast-side, and Florida along with southeastern states appear to be the most ‘at risk’ for threats, according to Bastardi.

“The pattern appears ripe for a rapid fire series of storms in the coming weeks, and by mid-September the memories of the hot 2011 summer are likely to be replaced by headlines of tropical storms and hurricanes – as well as rumors of more storms to come,” Bastardi added, "The first of these storms could reach the US coast the last week of August."

For media inquiries, please contact Mike Shanahan at WeatherBELL Analytics: (212) 856-7259.