There are three big aspects to the coming two weeks, and possibly a fourth.  There is major trough into the east this week, a charge south of cold air and snow shower activity in the lakes, midwest and northern and central Appalachians. There is also a major trough into the west later this week into early the week of the 15th and more heavy rains over the southern and central plains.   Severe weather will be held well under last year's April total, though there will be some later next week. Before that though, any severe weather is hit or miss and I am very confident in the tornado idea for this year (less than last year).

Since this is the Saturday Summary and  people that are not yet premium members are viewing this, let me again make the point that increased tornadic activity is linked to cooling, not warming. The La Nina first cools the tropical pacific, which is like turning down the thermostat of the earth.   The mid levels cool, which increases the threat of instability (troughs  have more cold air available).  We can go over case after case, but in this particular instance, I will use 4 examples. Number one:  the drop in temperatures from '07 (aqua in the chart below)  to  08 (purple), and the big tornado season in '08.

 

The increase from '09-'10 and the lack of tornadoes in 2010 (tan line):

A major drop occurs from 10 to 11

We are on our way back up again, though we were still very cold when the tornadoes went off in early March.

It's hard to say what the biggest  weather event will be among the 3. With the drought in Texas as a global warming example, I will hit that first. More liquid drought will hit the plains as it is quickly becoming apparent that the early season is singaling a big change from last year, and with good reason. The SOI at this time last year, when I was in disagrement with people saying the La Nina was fading, was way up and we never came out of the La Nina as far as the atmosphere was concerned. These guys that dont look at all the data, do not do the weather, or you, justice. 

Look at the 10 days ending April 7 of last year (SOI) rt  with the positives to the most recent ten days  this year:

 

It wasn't that La Nina came back, it never left.  But now it is certainly on the way out, for which I have been banging the drum since this winter.  Of course, that has implications down the road.  In any case, if the La Nina stops, we will get wetter in the southern plains and face a cooler summer through winter

Rainfall, next 2 weeks:

 

It's all linked, and it seems people screaming warming dont understand.  Watch the CFS.. first of all you can see it warming the nino3.4

but then watch the year cool down in 3 month increments:

 

April-June

 

July-September

 

October-November

 

I think the second big aspect is the cold over the east.  The trough is buckling strongly as you can see here on the week one 500 mb off the CFSv2  forecast:

 

The snow flies, and sticks over the mountains of the northeast:

and the core of the cold comes into the east for quite a bit below normal temps, the heart of it coming Tuesday-Saturday:

The new trough crashes the western party and their temps are a product of warm, turning cold, but you can see where the coldest of the cold is in the east.  As I said, there is a heck of a trough coming into the west and this leads to a week 2 fight.  The CFSV2 is slower in the southwest:

While the experimental  8-14  continues moving it along, which I believe to be correct:

 

so temps  April  15-19  and  then  20-24  look like this:

 

 

Still, this not have the kind of  umph that we are seeing now, which was clearer because I knew the MJO was going strong into phase  1 for this week. However after this, it goes into the "igloo", so to speak, which is a nonsignal. If we look at  phases 1-4  in April, the cold phases, we can see why its getting cold next week over much of the nation, from the plains east.

 

The euro, which is the guru of the MJO, takes it through one and we see the other models, follow, except the UKMET:

It is following its monthly forecast, issued Thursday:

The NCEP model:

And then there is the outlier, the UKMET:

 

Phases 2 and 3 are phases of fun in the colder and hurricane season.  Look at the development threats in phases 2 and 3 for hurricanes (brown is high)

 

Upward motion from the MJO is huge, so we will be on top of it.  

So we have cold east , moderating...then cooler air comes across with the trough that blasts into the west later next week and gets to the east the week of the 15th. There may be more cold air with that, but it seems that with a less robust MJO the biggest aspect of that next trough will not be cold in the plains and east, but the heavy rains that it sets off. As far as severe weather, we are going to be down overall for April compared to last year, but the trough coming out of the west may be able to kick off some action around and after the 15th.  As mentioned above, compared to last year, it's slim pickings.

Some global aspects:

I said temps would surge above normal globally and they are. While the year remains colder than normal so far at -.102

 

April is off to the races:

This can be seen here in the global 3 yr temp trace and is part of the forecast  here, for warming the next 3-5 months, then another rapid  drop to even lower than last year, as the jagged  retreat is underway overall:

 

In the Sea Ice situation, GLOBAL sea ice is a bit above normal:

 

The land of the now apparently over-populatated polar bear is a bit below  (Norway has it at the 30 yr average):

The land of the Penguin is above by a bit more than this is below:

At this time it appears the forecast  from  2007, that the ice cap would disappear in  2012,  given the time of melting started 3 weeks late, is not  going to happen.

Ice Screams are much ado about nothing...Ice Cream is more like it.