Greetings,

Have a blessed evening.

Kindly see below (and attached) the 6 PM copy of the Marine Weather Forecast for The Bahamas for Wednesday, April 2, 2025.

Cheers,
Orson Nixon (Duty Forecaster)

BAHAMAS MARINE FORECAST

MARINE FORECASTS FOR THE BAHAMAS ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AT 6:00 P.M. EDT WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2, 2025, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED AT 6:00 A.M. EDT TOMORROW.

WARNINGS:

Marine Hazards:

o NEAR GALE WATCH for ALL Bahamian waters.

o Small Craft Advisory: All Bahamian waters, highest risk Central and Southeast Bahamas.

o Swells: Large easterly swells 6 to 11 feet, roughest in Atlantic exposures.

Beach Hazards:

o Rip Currents: High risk along all Atlantic-facing beaches, dangerous for swimmers.

o Shore Break: Hazardous shore break conditions expected. Strong shore break on exposed coasts, risk of injury.

General Impacts:

o Marine Activities: Hazardous conditions for marine activities, including boating and fishing. Unsafe for small craft, risk of capsizing, avoid open waters.

o Beach Activities: Hazardous conditions for beach activities, including swimming and surfing.

o Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding possible during high tide.

GENERAL SITUATION:

Strong Atlantic high pressure continues to dominate The Bahamas. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds persist across all regions. Tight pressure gradient causes rough seas and large easterly swells. Mostly dry and hot weather remains with isolated showers southeast. Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue tonight and tomorrow.

Outlook:
Winds remain fresh to strong through Friday with dangerous seas and rip currents. Conditions improve slightly Saturday and Sunday as winds slowly decrease. Next cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday bringing increased showers and a break from the heat.

NORTHERN BAHAMAS _{(INCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA, ABACO, BIMINI & ADJACENT WATERS):}
ADVISORY:	Small Craft Advisory in effect due to waves and swells on the Atlantic exposed waters through Thursday.
WINDS:	East to southeast at 15 to 20 with higher gusts over open waters.
LOCAL SEAS:	4 to 6 feet but up to 8 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean.
GULF STREAM:	3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
SWELLS:	Light to moderate northeast to easterly swells on the Atlantic exposed waters.
WEATHER:	Mostly clear and hot, low chance of showers.
OUTLOOK:	Gusty winds, rough seas persist into Friday.

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS _{(INCLUDING NEW PROVIDENCE, ANDROS, THE BERRY ISLANDS, ELEUTHERA & ADJACENT WATERS):}
ADVISORY:	Small Craft Advisory in effect due to waves and swells on the Atlantic exposed waters through Thursday.
WINDS:	East to southeast at 15 to 20 with higher gusts over open waters.
LOCAL SEAS:	4 to 6 feet but up to 8 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean.
SWELLS:	Light to moderate northeast to easterly swells on the Atlantic exposed waters.
WEATHER:	Mostly dry, breezy to windy, and isolated showers possible late night.
OUTLOOK:	Winds and seas stay elevated through Friday.

CENTRAL BAHAMAS _{(INCLUDING EXUMA, CAT ISLAND, LONG ISLAND, SAN SALVADOR, RUM CAY & ADJACENT WATERS):}
ADVISORY:	Small Craft Advisory in effect due to waves and swells on the Atlantic exposed waters through Thursday.
WINDS:	East to southeast at 15 to 20 with higher gusts over open waters.
LOCAL SEAS:	4 to 6 feet but up to 8 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean.
SWELLS:	Light to moderate northeast to easterly swells on the Atlantic exposed waters.
WEATHER:	Breezy, mostly dry, few isolated showers.
OUTLOOK:	Very rough seas and strong winds persist through Friday, slow improvement by Sunday.

SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS _{(INCLUDING INAGUA, ACKLINS, CROOKED ISLAND, MAYAGUANA, RAGGED ISLAND & ADJACENT WATERS):}
ADVISORY:	Gale Watch remains in effect. Small Craft Advisory in effect due to waves and swells on the Atlantic exposed waters through Thursday. High risk of dangerous rip currents and hazardous shore break on Atlantic beaches.
WINDS:	Easterly at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to near-gale force over open waters.
LOCAL SEAS:	5 to 8 feet but up to 10 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 3 to 5 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean.
SWELLS:	Light to moderate northeast to easterly swells on the Atlantic exposed waters.
WEATHER:	Breezy to windy, few isolated showers.
OUTLOOK:	Gale conditions continue through Friday, easing to strong breezes by late weekend.

MOONSET:	MOONRISE:
12:31 AM_THU	11:02 AM_THU
MOON PHASE Waxing Crescent
First Quarter on Friday, April 4, 2025, at 10:14 PM.

ISLAND TIDES:	NORTHERN _{(GRAND BAHAMA):}	NORTHWEST _{(NEW PROVIDENCE):}	CENTRAL _(EXUMA):	SOUTHEAST _(INAGUA):
HIGH TIDE:	5:50 PM	5:48 PM	5:41 PM	6:10 PM
LOW TIDE:	12:18 AM_THU	12:16 AM_THU	12:09 AM_THU	12:38 AM_THU
HIGH TIDE:	6:51 AM_THU	6:49 AM_THU	6:42 AM_THU	7:11 AM_THU
LOW TIDE:	12:47 PM_THU	12:38 PM_THU	12:40 PM_THU	12:54 PM_THU

(For specific times for other islands, please see Tide Table Publication.)

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR THURSDAY, APRIL 3, 2025:
ADVISORY:	Gale Watch remains in effect for the Central and Southeast Bahamas. Small Craft Advisory for all areas. High risk of dangerous rip currents and hazardous shore break on Atlantic beaches.
WINDS:	Northern Bahamas: East to southeast at 15 to 20 with higher gusts over open waters. Northwest Bahamas: East to southeast 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts over open waters. Central/Southeast Bahamas: Easterly at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to near-gale force over open waters.
SEAS:	Northern Bahamas: 4 to 6 feet but up to 8 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean. Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 6 feet but up to 8 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean. Central/Southeast Bahamas: 4 to 6 feet but up to 8 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean.
SWELLS:	Moderate to large northeasterly swells on the Atlantic exposed waters.
PRECIPITATION:	All Areas: Slight chance of isolated showers.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR FRIDAY, APRIL 4, 2025:

ADVISORY:

Gale Watch remains in effect for Southeast Bahamas early, near-gale warning for Central Bahamas. Small Craft Advisory continues for all regions due to strong winds and rough seas.
High risk of dangerous rip currents and hazardous shore break on all Atlantic-facing beaches.

WINDS:

Nor

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BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST

BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, TOMORROW AND THE NEXT SIX (6) DAYS, ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AT 6:00 P.M. EDT, Wednesday, April 2, 2025. THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AT 6:00 A.M. EDT TOMORROW.

WARNING IN EFFECT:

A near gale watch (28-33 knots) is in effect across the Central and Southeast Bahamas with a near gale warning comes into effect tonight. For more information, please see the marine forecast.

GENERAL SITUATION:

A large high pressure system will remain across the island chain through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Fresh to strong breezes, rough seas and high temperatures will persist through Saturday. Winds will finally begin to subside on Sunday however, Atlantic coastlines are expected to continue to experience moderate sea swells.

SPECIAL WEATHER NOTES:

Beachgoers are urged to refrain from entering the waters of the eastern and southern shorelines, as well as all Atlantic beaches, due to the elevated risk of dangerous rip currents and possible rough surf.

NORTHERN BAHAMAS

(INCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA, ABACO, BIMINI & ADJACENT WATERS):

SKY CONDITIONS:

Mostly fair tonight, becoming sunny and hot tomorrow

PRECIPITATION:

10% chance of an isolated shower.

WINDS:

East to southeasterly at 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

82ºF – 86ºF / 28ºC – 30ºC

74ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC

N/A

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

(INCLUDING NEW PROVIDENCE, ANDROS, THE BERRY ISLANDS, ELEUTHERA & ADJACENT WATERS):

SKY CONDITIONS:

Mostly fair tonight, becoming sunny and hot tomorrow

PRECIPITATION:

10% chance of an isolated shower.

WINDS:

East to southeasterly at 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

82ºF – 86ºF / 28ºC – 30ºC

74ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC

N/A

CENTRAL BAHAMAS

(INCLUDING EXUMA, CAT ISLAND, LONG ISLAND, SAN SALVADOR, RUM CAY & ADJACENT WATERS):

SKY CONDITIONS:

Mostly fair tonight, becoming sunny and hot tomorrow

PRECIPITATION:

10% chance of an isolated shower.

WINDS:

East to Southeast at 15 to 25 knots with occasional gusts.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

82ºF – 86ºF / 28ºC – 30ºC

74ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC

N/A

SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS

(INCLUDING INAGUA, ACKLINS, CROOKED ISLAND, MAYAGUANA, RAGGED ISLAND & ADJACENT WATERS):

SKY CONDITIONS:

Mostly fair tonight, becoming sunny and hot tomorrow

PRECIPITATION:

10% chance of an isolated shower.

WINDS:

East to Southeast at 15 to 25 knots building to 20 to 25 knots later tonight and tomorrow.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

82ºF – 87ºF / 28ºC – 31ºC

74ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC

N/A

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR Friday 4^th April 2025

SKY CONDITIONS:

A mix of sun and clouds during the day, turning mostly fair at night.

PRECIPITATION:

10% chance of a few brief passing showers, 30% chance of isolated showers in the Southeast Bahamas

WINDS:

East to Southeast at 15 to 25 knots and gusty at times.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

82ºF – 87ºF / 28ºC – 31ºC

74ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC

N/A

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR Saturday 5^th April 2025

SKY CONDITIONS:

A mix of sun and clouds during the day, turning mostly fair at night.

PRECIPITATION:

10% chance of a few brief passing showers.

WINDS:

East to Southeast at 15 to 25 knots and gusty at times.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

82ºF – 87ºF / 28ºC – 31ºC

74ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC

N/A

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR Sunday 6^th April 2025

SKY CONDITIONS:

A mix of sun and clouds during the day, turning mostly fair at night.

PRECIPITATION:

20% chance of a few brief passing showers mainly in the Southeastern islands.

WINDS:

East to southeasterly at 15 to 20 falling to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts in the Northern, Northwest and Central Bahamas and Easterly at 15 to 20 knots in the Southeast Bahamas.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

81ºF – 86ºF / 27ºC – 30ºC

73ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC

N/A

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR Monday 7^th April 2025

SKY CONDITIONS:

Partly to mostly sunny during the day, turning mostly fair at night.

PRECIPITATION:

10% chance of a few passing showers, 20% chance in the Southeastern islands.

WINDS:

Southeast to South at 10 to 15 knots in the Northern and Northwest Bahamas and East to Southeast at 10 to 15 knots in the Southeast Bahamas.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

81ºF – 86ºF / 27ºC – 30ºC

73ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC

No severe weather conditions are currently in effect

7-Day Probabilities

Active Bahamas

Storm Information

Spaghetti Models

No ATCF storm tracks currently available

Tropical Update

Seasonal Outlook

There is no content.

February 7, 2025

The 2025 Hurricane Season should have fewer impacts than 2024.

2018 is the closest analog.

Unlike last year, there are currently no clear landfall signals.

The high-impact forecast area map will be issued with the April update.

An El Niño may develop but likely won't be a huge factor if it does.

Forecast according to the Power & Impact Scale

Named Storms: 15-19 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 1 or greater hurricanes: 7-9 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 2.5 (start of Power & Impact major hurricane classification): 3

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast

Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150

Impact Forecast

Tropical Storm Conditions: 5-7
Total Hurricanes: 3-4
Major Hurricanes: 1-2

Commentary

The forecast is based on the overall cooling of SSTs in the Atlantic and forecasted warming in the ENSO areas of the Pacific. Even now, the Main Development Region is much cooler than last year at this time. 2024:

Now:

I believe the Euro has the right idea on the ENSO region, which is the opposite of last year when the strong El Niño collapsed. This year, the Euro is forecasting a weak La Niña reversing to an El Niño by the hurricane season.

The consensus of the models is not as impressed with that chance (compiled by IRI).

The consensus is a very low chance for El Niño. I am following the example of the 2017-18 pattern that resulted in a similar winter to what we will wind up with here, after a similar hurricane season in 2017. That was actually the hurricane season with the most damage and 2023 was second. The winter MJO rotation has been close to 2017-18, indicating there is an overall similarity in the global pattern.

Finally, I don't believe a weak El Niño, given the current global warmth, would be as big of a deal when it comes to the total number of storms as it may have had in the past. Based on the ONI we had a strong El Niño in 2023 and there were more total storms than in 2024. The key was almost all were out at sea. As far as clustering, if there is to be a clustering of tracks, it's liable to be to the east of last year and coming more from systems passing to the north, and not to the south of the Caribbean islands.

A look at the Euro SSTs for May-July:

Still, it doesn't have an El Niño. The Atlantic is much cooler than last year, and the swath of warmer water is shown to the north. This suggests less Main Development Region activity, but the worry about rapid feedback farther to the north and in close to the coast is there. So it will be a different look but one that will still have its share of issues.

Note that last year's forecasted pattern stood out like a sore thumb:

The Verdict

There is no question that what we saw stood out so much that from December we hit the hurricane season from hell, the second most costly on record. I was overdone in the numbers game, though. With a less impressive look this year, I am expecting true tropical cyclones to be less, but there is going to be a better chance for the "ham sandwiches" in the North Atlantic to pump up numbers.

This season will be a year where in-close development is a concern, as it has been recently, due to the distortion of overall feedback patterns likely brought about by the distortion of warming, the Global Wind Oscillation, and Sea Level Pressure patterns.

As a side note, we had a well below average global ACE last year due to the Western Pacific being so far down. I expect a more normal number in the Western Pacific this year.

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