Greetings,

Have a blessed evening.

Kindly see below (and attached) the 6 PM copy of the Marine Weather Forecast for The Bahamas for Tuesday, April 1, 2025.

Cheers,
Orson Nixon (Duty Forecaster)

BAHAMAS MARINE FORECAST

MARINE FORECASTS FOR THE BAHAMAS ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AT 6:00 P.M. EDT TUESDAY, APRIL 1, 2025, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED AT 6:00 A.M. EDT TOMORROW.

WARNINGS:

o Marine Hazards:

o Small Craft Caution: Advised for all remaining Atlantic waters due to rough seas and strong winds.

o Swells: Moderate to large easterly swells on Atlantic-exposed waters.

o Beach Hazards:

o Rip Current Risk:

o High Risk: Atlantic waters of the island chain due to elevated rip currents and rough surf conditions.

o Moderate Risk: Sheltered eastern coastal waters of Central and Southern Bahamas.

o Marginal Risk: Some sheltered eastern coastal waters of Central and Southern Bahamas.

o Action: Swimmers and beachgoers urged to remain on shore due to elevated rip currents and rough surf conditions.

o General Impacts:

o Marine Activities: Exercise caution in Central and Southeast Bahamas due to breezy conditions and elevated seas.

o Beach Activities: Safe but apply sunscreen due to high UV index (8-10).

GENERAL SITUATION:

A strong high-pressure ridge northeast of the Bahamas continues to strengthen, creating windy conditions and hazardous marine conditions tonight into tomorrow. Near-gale winds (28-33 knots) are expected across the Central and Southeast Bahamas and southern Andros waters, generating rough seas and dangerous surf. Elsewhere, strong east-southeast winds prevail, maintaining Small Craft Advisory conditions across the islands. Isolated, fast-moving showers are possible within brisk easterly winds. Expect windy conditions and hazardous seas to persist through mid to late week, with only slight rainfall chances.

Outlook: Wednesday brings rough seas and strong winds, with near-gale conditions in the Central and Southeast Bahamas. Thunderstorm risk increases midweek as the ridge weakens. Small craft advisories and near-gale warnings remain in effect.

NORTHERN BAHAMAS _{(INCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA, ABACO, BIMINI & ADJACENT WATERS):}
ADVISORY:	Small Craft Caution remains in effect due to waves and swells on the Atlantic exposed waters for all other areas.
WINDS:	South to southwest at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts early falling light and variable by late morning over open waters.
LOCAL SEAS:	2 to 4 feet but up to 6 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 1 to 3 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean.
GULF STREAM:	1 to 3 feet.
SWELLS:	Moderate to large easterly swells on the Atlantic exposed waters.
WEATHER:	Mostly clear skies, isolated showers tonight.
OUTLOOK:	Increasing winds and seas tomorrow. Small Craft Advisory conditions developing.

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS _{(INCLUDING NEW PROVIDENCE, ANDROS, THE BERRY ISLANDS, ELEUTHERA & ADJACENT WATERS):}
ADVISORY:	Small Craft Caution remains in effect due to waves and swells on the Atlantic exposed waters for all other areas.
WINDS:	East to southeast at 10 to 15 knots but falling light and variable at times over open waters.
LOCAL SEAS:	2 to 4 feet but up to 6 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 1 to 3 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean.
SWELLS:	Moderate to large easterly swells on the Atlantic exposed waters.
WEATHER:	Mostly clear skies, isolated showers tonight.
OUTLOOK:	Increasing winds and seas tomorrow. Small Craft Advisory conditions developing.

CENTRAL BAHAMAS _{(INCLUDING EXUMA, CAT ISLAND, LONG ISLAND, SAN SALVADOR, RUM CAY & ADJACENT WATERS):}
ADVISORY:	Small Craft Caution remains in effect due to waves and swells on the Atlantic exposed waters for all other areas.
WINDS:	East to southeast at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts over open waters.
LOCAL SEAS:	2 to 4 feet but up to 6 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 1 to 3 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean.
SWELLS:	Moderate to large easterly swells on the Atlantic exposed waters.
WEATHER:	Mostly clear, isolated showers possible.
OUTLOOK:	Increasing winds and seas tomorrow. Small Craft Advisory conditions developing.

SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS _{(INCLUDING INAGUA, ACKLINS, CROOKED ISLAND, MAYAGUANA, RAGGED ISLAND & ADJACENT WATERS):}
ADVISORY:	Small Craft Caution remains in effect due to waves and swells on the Atlantic exposed waters for all other areas.
WINDS:	East to southeast at 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts over open waters.
LOCAL SEAS:	4 to 6 feet but up to 8 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean.
SWELLS:	Moderate to large easterly swells on the Atlantic exposed waters.
WEATHER:	Mostly clear to partly cloudy, isolated passing showers.
OUTLOOK:	Increasing winds and seas tomorrow. Small Craft Advisory conditions developing.

MOONSET:	MOONRISE:
11:23 PM	10:03 AM_WED
MOON PHASE Waxing Crescent
First Quarter on Friday, April 4, 2025, at 10:14 PM.

ISLAND TIDES:	NORTHERN _{(GRAND BAHAMA):}	NORTHWEST _{(NEW PROVIDENCE):}	CENTRAL _(EXUMA):	SOUTHEAST _(INAGUA):
HIGH TIDE:	11:29 PM	11:20 PM	11:22 PM	11:36 PM
LOW TIDE:	5:51 AM_WED	5:49 AM_WED	5:42 AM_WED	6:11 AM_WED
HIGH TIDE:	11:49 AM_WED	11:40 AM_WED	11:42 AM_WED	11:56 AM_WED
LOW TIDE:	5:50 PM_WED	5:48 PM_WED	5:41 PM_WED	6:10 PM_WED

(For specific times for other islands, please see Tide Table Publication.)

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2, 2025:
ADVISORY:	Gale Watch remains in effect for Southeast Bahamas waters. Small Craft Advisory for all areas. High risk of dangerous rip currents and hazardous shore break on Atlantic beaches.
WINDS:	Northern Bahamas: East to southeast at 15 to 20 with higher gusts over open waters. Northwest Bahamas: East to southeast 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts over open waters. Central Bahamas: East to southeast at 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts over open waters. Southeast Bahamas: Easterly at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to near-gale force over open waters.
SEAS:	Northern Bahamas: 4 to 6 feet but up to 8 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean. Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 6 feet but up to 8 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean. Central Bahamas: 4 to 6 feet but up to 8 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean. Southeast Bahamas: 5 to 8 feet but up to 10 feet in swells on the Atlantic exposure and 3 to 5 feet elsewhere, but higher in gusts over the ocean.
SWELLS:	Light to moderate northeast to easterly swells on the Atlantic exposed waters.
PRECIPITATION:	All Areas: Slight chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon hours.

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BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST

BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, TOMORROW AND THE NEXT SIX (6) DAYS, ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AT 6:00 P.M. EDT, Tuesday, April 1, 2025. THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AT 6:00 A.M. EDT TOMORROW.

WARNING IN EFFECT:

There are currently no public warnings in effect at this time.

GENERAL SITUATION:

A ridge of high pressure remains the dominant weather feature tonight through tomorrow.

Outlook: The ridging pattern accompanied by a dry air mass will amplify throughout the period, contributing to plenty of sunshine, warmer daytime and nighttime temperatures, while reinforcing breezy to windy conditions across the country through the remainder of the week. Despite the presence of the ridge, significant daytime heating along with available low-level moisture, may trigger some rogue afternoon showers throughout the forecast period. A late season cold front is anticipated to enter the Northern Bahamas by Tuesday of next week bringing some showers and possible convective activity along with it.

SPECIAL WEATHER NOTES:

Due to persistent dry conditions and brisk winds, the public is urged to refrain from burning trash and to properly discard glass, cigarettes and other flammable materials to mitigate against the risk of bushfires. Beachgoers are urged to refrain from entering the waters of the eastern and southern shorelines of the Southeast Bahamas, as well as all Atlantic beaches, due to the elevated risk of dangerous rip currents and possible rough surf.

NORTHERN BAHAMAS (INCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA, ABACO, BIMINI & ADJACENT WATERS):
SKY CONDITIONS:	Mostly fair tonight, partly to mostly sunny tomorrow.
PRECIPITATION:	20% chance of an isolated shower or two tonight through the early morning hours decreasing to 10% afterwards.
WINDS:	Southeast at 10 knots or less tonight, increasing to 15 knots tomorrow with higher gusts.
TEMPERATURES:	MAXIMUM:	MINIMUM:	HEAT INDEX:
TEMPERATURES:	82ºF – 86ºF / 28ºC – 30ºC	73ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC	N/A

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS (INCLUDING NEW PROVIDENCE, ANDROS, THE BERRY ISLANDS, ELEUTHERA & ADJACENT WATERS):
SKY CONDITIONS:	Mostly fair tonight, partly to mostly sunny and breezy tomorrow.
PRECIPITATION:	20% chance of an isolated shower or two tonight through the early morning hours decreasing to 10% afterwards.
WINDS:	Southeast at 10 knots or less tonight, shifting east to southeast tomorrow at 15-20 knots.
TEMPERATURES:	MAXIMUM:	MINIMUM:	HEAT INDEX:
TEMPERATURES:	82ºF – 86ºF / 28ºC – 30ºC	73ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC	N/A

CENTRAL BAHAMAS (INCLUDING EXUMA, CAT ISLAND, LONG ISLAND, SAN SALVADOR, RUM CAY & ADJACENT WATERS):
SKY CONDITIONS:	Mostly fair tonight, partly to mostly sunny and windy tomorrow.
PRECIPITATION:	10% chance of a passing shower tonight through tomorrow.
WINDS:	East to southeast at 10-15 knots tonight, settling easterly tomorrow at 15-20 knots with higher gusts.
TEMPERATURES:	MAXIMUM:	MINIMUM:	HEAT INDEX:
TEMPERATURES:	82ºF – 86ºF / 28ºC – 30ºC	75ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC	N/A

SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS (INCLUDING INAGUA, ACKLINS, CROOKED ISLAND, MAYAGUANA, RAGGED ISLAND & ADJACENT WATERS):
SKY CONDITIONS:	Mostly fair tonight, partly to mostly sunny and windy tomorrow.
PRECIPITATION:	10% chance of showers.
WINDS:	Easterly at 15 knots tonight, increasing 15-20 knots tomorrow with higher gusts.
TEMPERATURES:	MAXIMUM:	MINIMUM:	HEAT INDEX:
TEMPERATURES:	82ºF – 87ºF / 28ºC – 31ºC	75ºF – 78ºF / 24ºC – 26ºC	N/A

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR Thursday 3^rd April 2025
SKY CONDITIONS:	Partly sunny, fair at night.
PRECIPITATION:	10 – 20% chance of a few passing showers.
WINDS:	East to Southeast at 15 to 20 knots and gusty at times in the Northern and Northwest Bahamas and Easterly at 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts in the Central and Southeast Bahamas.
TEMPERATURES:	MAXIMUM:	MINIMUM:	HEAT INDEX:
TEMPERATURES:	82ºF – 87ºF / 28ºC – 31ºC	75ºF – 78ºF / 24ºC – 26ºC	N/A

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR Friday 4^th April 2025
SKY CONDITIONS:	A mix of sun and clouds, turning mostly fair to partly cloudy at night.
PRECIPITATION:	10 – 20% chance of a few passing showers.
WINDS:	East to Southeast at 15 to 25 knots and gusty at times.
TEMPERATURES:	MAXIMUM:	MINIMUM:	HEAT INDEX:
TEMPERATURES:	82ºF – 87ºF / 28ºC – 31ºC	75ºF – 78ºF / 24ºC – 26ºC	N/A

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR Saturday 5^th April 2025
SKY CONDITIONS:	A mix of sun and clouds, turning mostly fair to partly cloudy at night.
PRECIPITATION:	10 – 20% chance of a few passing showers.
WINDS:	East to Southeast at 15 to 20 knots with slightly higher gusts at times
TEMPERATURES:	MAXIMUM:	MINIMUM:	HEAT INDEX:
TEMPERATURES:	82ºF – 86ºF / 28ºC – 30ºC	74ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC	N/A

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR Sunday 6^th April 2025
SKY CONDITIONS:	A mix of sun and clouds, turning mostly fair to partly cloudy at night.
PRECIPITATION:	10 – 20% chance of a few passing showers.
WINDS:	Southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts in the Northern, Northwest and Central Bahamas and Easterly at 15 to 20 knots in the Southeast Bahamas.
TEMPERATURES:	MAXIMUM:	MINIMUM:	HEAT INDEX:
TEMPERATURES:	81ºF – 86ºF / 27ºC – 30ºC	73ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC	N/A

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR Monday 7^th April 2025

No severe weather conditions are currently in effect

- Tropical Update
- Seasonal Outlook
February 7, 2025
- The 2025 Hurricane Season should have fewer impacts than 2024.
- 2018 is the closest analog.
- Unlike last year, there are currently no clear landfall signals.
  - The high-impact forecast area map will be issued with the April update.
- An El Niño may develop but likely won't be a huge factor if it does.
Forecast according to the Power & Impact Scale

Named Storms: 15-19 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 1 or greater hurricanes: 7-9 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 2.5 (start of Power & Impact major hurricane classification): 3

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast

Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150

Impact Forecast

Tropical Storm Conditions: 5-7
Total Hurricanes: 3-4
Major Hurricanes: 1-2

Commentary

The forecast is based on the overall cooling of SSTs in the Atlantic and forecasted warming in the ENSO areas of the Pacific. Even now, the Main Development Region is much cooler than last year at this time. 2024:

Now:

I believe the Euro has the right idea on the ENSO region, which is the opposite of last year when the strong El Niño collapsed. This year, the Euro is forecasting a weak La Niña reversing to an El Niño by the hurricane season.

The consensus of the models is not as impressed with that chance (compiled by IRI).

The consensus is a very low chance for El Niño. I am following the example of the 2017-18 pattern that resulted in a similar winter to what we will wind up with here, after a similar hurricane season in 2017. That was actually the hurricane season with the most damage and 2023 was second. The winter MJO rotation has been close to 2017-18, indicating there is an overall similarity in the global pattern.

Finally, I don't believe a weak El Niño, given the current global warmth, would be as big of a deal when it comes to the total number of storms as it may have had in the past. Based on the ONI we had a strong El Niño in 2023 and there were more total storms than in 2024. The key was almost all were out at sea. As far as clustering, if there is to be a clustering of tracks, it's liable to be to the east of last year and coming more from systems passing to the north, and not to the south of the Caribbean islands.

A look at the Euro SSTs for May-July:

Still, it doesn't have an El Niño. The Atlantic is much cooler than last year, and the swath of warmer water is shown to the north. This suggests less Main Development Region activity, but the worry about rapid feedback farther to the north and in close to the coast is there. So it will be a different look but one that will still have its share of issues.

Note that last year's forecasted pattern stood out like a sore thumb:

The Verdict

There is no question that what we saw stood out so much that from December we hit the hurricane season from hell, the second most costly on record. I was overdone in the numbers game, though. With a less impressive look this year, I am expecting true tropical cyclones to be less, but there is going to be a better chance for the "ham sandwiches" in the North Atlantic to pump up numbers.

This season will be a year where in-close development is a concern, as it has been recently, due to the distortion of overall feedback patterns likely brought about by the distortion of warming, the Global Wind Oscillation, and Sea Level Pressure patterns.

As a side note, we had a well below average global ACE last year due to the Western Pacific being so far down. I expect a more normal number in the Western Pacific this year.

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