January 6, 2015

Drought in Parts of Brazil

• Areas of western Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo into Parana have seen increased rainfall this summer.
  • These areas were very dry last year.
• Other areas of eastern Minas Gerains and Espirito Santo up into Bahia have seen dryness develop.
  • These areas mainly received adequate rainfall last year.
• Over the next 30 days, the same pattern is expected to continue.

Dryness which developed in eastern Brazil, has spread again westward into Minas Gerais during the last 6 weeks.

Last week was dry from prime arabica coffee areas of Minas Gerais into robusta coffee areas of Espirito Santo and Bahia.

That dryness continues over the next 10 days.

With the dryness comes warmer than normal temperatures.

The next 30 days shows more of the same with wet conditions in areas to the southwest from Parana to Sao Paulo but dryness from eastern Minas Gerais up into Bahia.

Normally, this is the wet season in the south, shown here are the normal monthly temperature and precipitation for Parana and Sao Paulo.

It is also normally the wettest time of year in Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo.

To the north in Bahia, June is normally the wettest month.

We have been concerned with dryness in Espirito Santo and eastern Minas Gerais northward to Bahia. The area of concern has spread farther west in Minas Gerais where drought in 2013-14 affected output.

Last year, the East from Espirito Santo to Bahia had a good crop, an increase of 20% year on year, with Espirito Santo, Brazil's top robusta producing state, and Bahia to the north, enjoying relatively benign weather. The same pattern of wet areas to the west and dry areas to the East is expected to continue over the next 30 days.