December 7, 2023

• A hurricane season from hell is shaping up for 2024.
• Very high levels of activity should be prepared for in areas that were essentially left untouched in 2023.
• The El Niño will reverse to a La Niña, while the Atlantic basin will be ideal for development.
• Very warm water in the northeastern Pacific is likely to mean the kind of pattern over North America that was similar to 2005, 2017, and 2020.
  • This invited storms to reach the U.S.

Basin Forecast

Names Storms 25-30
Hurricanes 14-16
Major Hurricanes 6-8
Total ACE 200-240

Note that this comes out to an average ACE per storm of 8.

Impact Forecast

Named storm Impacts 10-14
Hurricane Impacts 5-8
Major Hurricane Impacts 3-5

The forecast map has no areas receiving below-average tropical cyclone activity. The highest areas are expected to be in a cone of 2-3 times average, aimed at our coast, which includes the Caribbean and Bahamas.

Further details will be on the Seasonal Forecasts next year, but I wanted to get this out early to you.

It appears the climate hypothesis that this El Niño could reverse quickly is quite possible.