November 22 07:51 AM

I am  on the road in NYC  so things are more hectic  than normal.  Went out to eat last night and Puff Daddy  was in the place, and  this morning,  after  all I ate , given I am a father and  am holding water,  I am  a  true puff daddy.

First of all lets   look at something, the winter forecast  from  WeatherBell  vis the blend of the last two winters:

Last two winters:

These were the coldest  back to back winters  since the  80s,  and  over  75% of the nation was over  2 degrees  below normal.  That neither winter was captured by the models  should tell you something about models.  However my current winter forecast is for less than  25% of the nation to be below normal and  is nothing compared  to  the previous two winters. This forecast has been out for months   now

That is not a brutal winter , it is one with challenges and likely to have  plenty of snow   I-80 north, and more than normal  ice, but it doesnt get remotely close  to  the last 2 winters, or what I think is around the corner once we pull the  la nina  off.   

Some big negatives  fro the I-95 corridor  as far  as snow goes and  I am going to have to factor this in, for just like  almost all the  analogs  we use are cold the first  10-15 days of December, and you can see as plain as the nose on my face  we are going to the eastern  trough, is the fact that when it snows in October, the rest of the winter has below normal snowfall In that area. Pauly, the blog observer pointed that out and at  5-10  240 and shredded and into mixed martial  arts, when Pauly speaks, one must listen ( especially since he is  right..the kiss of death of the  72-73 winter was the October snow, and  79-80  was nothing to write home about either)   That is interesting because back in State College,  when it snows in October, we are normal to above normal. In addition  most of the early snows in the I-95 corridor are el nino  seasons,  The la nina  snow is rare, probably  because the jet is stronger   that we can get that, but a stronger  jet in winter very often means  a stronger  vortex and   the east warm.

I  am saying this because traditionally the end of November is when you  start seeing  all sorts of things being said. I think you would agree with me, a couple of weeks ago there was talk that there was nothing but warmth on the horizon, yet here we are with a potentially  exciting  pattern shaping up. For those hoping for the winter of  1917-1918,  which the daily  run of  the CFS had  a couple of days ago, it still has it,  and the atmospheric avenger will compare it with the  running  2 means  that  ended  last night  on the NOAA  site. The models are erratic because there is alot going on  Mi Cumpare Joe D Aleo  told me last night the geomagnetic   analog is back in the blocking  mode, and  of course  get a positive pna and then thrown in a  block and  then we are talking colder than I have. But right now,  take the forecast for what it says with the numbers, and resist adjectives  that may mean one thing or another. Kind of tough to run from an actual number,but  one can claim anything when using  non scientific terms as you see in  press releases or  such.   I have adapted the attitude with media  that if they are having me on,  they  can intro it anyway  they want,  but I am going to say what I think, Funny Story,  someone  had me on their show  one night and  promo'd something  and I   told him that this is not what I meant.He said I'll do the teases  you do the weather,  but I havent  been  back since.  Which I guess is the price one pays, but Igtta be me  ( Sounds like a song). Yep  have to do it my way  (  There how can you lose with Frank Sinatra,  though Paul Anka  wrote it.

Somehow I cant square that Paul  Anka wrote that song..But I digress ( so what else is new)

Anyway

But I want to talk about the December  open

. The idea that we would flip to the eastern trough and western ridge, which has been a focal point for months now for the start of winter based on the analogs, is the forecast idea. However, as far as the actual pattern, an eastern trough does not mean it has to be like last year. In the December forecast, re-issued yesterday, I am holding the temperatures for the month where they are, WHICH ARE NOT THAT COLD. Last year, December was 8-10 degrees below normal. I think there has been a lot of hyperbole over the winter; I have heard the term "brutal" thrown around. Then there has been whipsawing back and forth to ideas that it's a warm winter for much of the South and East, and I have no problem with that mid-January on. In fact, it may be that the flip to warmer, which waited so long last year, could occur earlier, unless blocking develops. There is a strong correlation with low geomagnetic fields and blocking and the geomagnetic field is in the area one looks for blocks. That is not apparent now. However, I don't want my clients whipsawed by model runs. The fact is that we are going to a 3 wave pattern with a positive PNA next week and beyond. The PNA forecast index looks like this:

At  500mb and the surface, the mid-winter temperature pattern, with a positive PNA, looks like this:

By day 9 we have a pattern that looks like this, which is a weak to moderate PNA:

and week two temps on the ensemble, and PSU's e-wall, are the actual, not calculated ones on other sites that swing from issuance to issuance based on the time of issuance.

This is what the eastern trough PNA leads to. There is no blocking means for now, the forecast idea, which has never been for severe cold, but for a mid-ground between a set of thoughts that said there was no sign on winter, and the option that the block could pop and it would be much colder, looks to be the right place to be. Keep in mind, that the warm-ups have wound up warmer, but the cool downs turned out colder. The late October-early November period was a classic case of the latter. When it turned cold, it got even colder than the models said. But, with that being said, so did this warm up.

In any  case its not like there is nothing going on, The trough is on the way to the east to open the first month of real winter, and  each step means a chance to look at the next one around the corner

check  out the  video  when it gets on for the  CFS   daily vs running mean fight