WeatherBELL Success 13 years ago

WeatherBell Successes

Halloween Weekend Snowstorm

October 29-30, 2011

The remarkable forecasting skills of Joe Bastardi and Joe D’Aleo allowed for exclusive, advanced warning of the Halloween Weekend Snowstorm. WeatherBELL Analytics was the first to pick up on the snow threat in the Northeast when Joe Bastardi clearly outlined the possibility of a Northeast snowstorm in a Monday, October 24th post. However, the snow threat did not become a major news story in the media until Thursday, October 27th.  On Tuesday, Bastardi stated: “I like the idea of an interior Northeast snow that could even end as snow from Philadelphia to Boston Saturday night.” On that same day, he also noted that the storm was one that had the potential to “take down a lot of trees from northern West Virginia to interior southern New England, given we still have a lot of foliage on the trees.” By Thursday, both Joe Bastardi and Joe D’Aleo were confident that heavy, wet snow was approaching the Northeast with the capability of causing major power outages and record snowfall. Bastardi’s total snowfall forecast was seen on FOX Business Thursday afternoon as he warned viewers of the upcoming storm. As Bastardi and D’Aleo closely tracked the storm, power outages were stressed as being the top concern.


Impact: As predicted, numerous snow records were broken, and created, in the Northeast as the first significant snowfall of the season began on Saturday. In Hartfield, CT, 12.3" of snow fell on Saturday, October 29th breaking the previous single day snowfall record of 1.7" set on October 10, 1979. Central Park in New York City recorded 2.9" of snow on Saturday, October 29th. This is the only time since records began that an inch or more of snow has fallen in the month of October. Peru, MA received 32" of snow by the end of the storm. By Sunday morning, October 30, 2011, about 3 million people were left in the dark as snow-covered trees snapped and fell onto power lines. 

 

Hurricane Irene

August, 2011

 

At the beginning of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season, Joe Bastardi warned of an East Coast threat. In May, Bastardi released his “Tropical Threat” forecast, focusing on an increased tropical risk from Florida to New England. By the middle of August, tropical activity began to stir and WeatherBELL Analytics clients relied heavily on Joe Bastardi’s tropical expertise. Bastardi’s WeatherBELL Commercial post on August 16, 2011 made clients aware of the pattern favorable for an East Coast threat rather than a threat to the Gulf. On August 20, 2011, Irene, the ninth named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season, formed.


 

From the birth of Irene, Bastardi knew she was a major US impact storm with immediate threats to the East Coast and consistently tracked Irene along the coast.  As competitors forecasted the storm hitting Florida as a non-event, Bastardi warned of a damaging multi-billion dollar storm.  While featured on The Bill O’Reilly Factor on FOX News on Monday August 29, Bastardi warned viewers and clients of a developing storm in the Gulf, behind Irene. He correctly stated that Lee would develop in the Gulf and hit the Gulf Coast over the weekend. He also forecasted heavy rains spreading up through the Appalachians during the week after Labor Day. Lee caused an estimated $1-2 billion in flood damage and was the costliest storm of tropical origin to Pennsylvania since Agnes of 1972. 

 

    


 

Joe Bastardi’s August 23, 2011 Hurricane Irene track showed Irene impacting North Carolina before hugging the East Coast and continuing into New England. Bastardi forecasted pressures that were extremely close, and in many instances spot on, to the observed pressure. He emphasized using his power scale, which incorporates pressure, to determine the strength of Irene as it gave a better indicator of the overall structure of a storm. Although Irene’s winds died down to 10-20% under Bastardi’s forecast, the extremely low pressure allowed for strong gusts capable of knocking down trees and power-lines, as well as excessive rains. 

 

 

Impact: Irene was the first hurricane to hit the US since Hurricane Ike struck Texas in September of 2008. River flooding records were broken in 26 rivers across New Jersey, New York and Vermont. The storm that left about 9 million people without power also caused at least 40 fatalities. With an estimated $7.56 billion in damages, Hurricane Irene became the 10th US billion dollar natural disaster of 2011 in the United States. 

 

Bastardi’s persistence in classifying Irene as a potentially devastating storm allowed clients to prepare for the hurricane well before evacuations were ordered. Although many avoided thousands of dollars with of damage, others were not so lucky as hurricane induced flood waters destroyed many New England communities.

 

 

 

 

Major Drought Reversal coming to Europe, but not Texas

June 8, 2011 10:28 PM

 

…There is no warm ocean west of Texas. Instead the now cold Pacific means strong sinking of air in the means south of 40 north much of the time and the tendency toward dry weather in La Ninas with cold PDOs. In fact the current drought is rivaling what happened in 1918 at the tail end of a cold PDO La Nina. But you could see this coming from last year, it was something I brought up on Fox Business News in September, and then December.

Let's look at another big drought in Texas year, with major heat, 1954, which happens to be the benchmark season on the US East Coast for hurricanes…

 

Impact: WeatherBELL Analytics meteorologists informed clients of the state of the drought in Texas on June 8, 2011. Clients were able to fully understand the current and future state of the Texas drought and the impacts it would have on the agriculture and energy industries.

La Ninas are often far more costly than El Ninos

June 8, 2011 02:45 PM

 

…In La Nina, the picture is very different from that of El Nino. When periodic outbreaks of extreme cold weather and snow occur across the northern states, the costs of heating, snow removal, fuel for airline and trucking industries can become at least regionally significant. As snowstorms hit northern areas and snow and ice storms occur across the south or east, business may be shut down for days with major effects on commerce. Retail sales may be down due to travel difficulties. Construction work will be hampered with delays and loss of employment.

Also in La Ninas, losses from springtime flooding and from droughts and hurricanes typically are much greater than normal. Flooding in La Nina years averages nearly $4.5 billion compared to an average of $2.4 billion. We have already seen examples of that in 2008 and 2009 in Missouri and Arkansas and this year in the Ohio, Mississippi (worst since 1927), Champlain and now Missouri River Valleys...  

 

Impact: On June 8, 2011, WeatherBELL meteorologists compared the impact of La Nina years to El Nino years. Direct effects to energy and agriculture industries are highlighted in the blog for clients to use to their benefit. Our meteorologists ensure that our clients have a complete understanding of weather trends so they can make intelligent business decisions.


Are the Lakes and New England Next for a Severe Weather Burst?

May 28, 2011 02:05 PM

 

…In any case, the problem now may shift to the Lakes and Northeast. With a saturated ground to the southwest, higher than normal dewpoint air is liable to be available next week and the week after to come northeast. The ridge, will reach high tide over the next few days over the Lakes will back southwest, and by doing so, allow the Northeast and Lakes to enter a tornado producing pattern of major troughs from the west northwest attacking southeast into low level warm and humid air. This will become established later next week, and then try to return and develop in subsequent periods. This can be readily seen on the 500 mb ensembles. 

Interestingly enough, the super ensemble at day 8 (for late next week) had 3 of the 10 analogs from 1953, the year of the Worcester, MA tornado.

That is not to say a tornado is coming to Worcester, Mass... it is to say that the next place to look for the threat of above normal severe weather is from the Northern Plains through the Lakes and into the mid and north Atlantic states later next week and the week after…

 

Impact: The above excerpt was posted on May 28, 2011, 5 days before the Springfield, Massachusetts tornadoes. For those who were following the posts of WeatherBELL meteorologists, the tornadoes were no surprise. The May 28 post showed why the weather pattern was going to set up and what the possible effects of that would be. It related the current pattern to one that occurred in the 1950’s and specifically reminded us of the 1953 Worcester, MA tornado. Our clients were aware of the potential tornadoes five days prior to the event.

 

 

The Great Floods of 1927 and 2011

May 7, 2011 01:52 PM

 

…Fortunately the pattern has changed with the action shifting further north. The flooded region will not get excessive rainfall and runoff to further enhance this flood crest the next 8 days.

Indications are the action stays there week 2. Flooding more localized is likely to increase in the eastern Ohio Valley and the northern Appalachians in NY and PA (watch out JB!), where they have been very wet this spring. (Ironically in October and early November in 1927, extreme flooding followed the Mississippi flooding in New England focused on Vermont.) The rains are increasing north and east of the flood area as we have noted together with snowmelt is already causing significant flooding. See Meteorologist Bill Steffen's WOOD-TV post here on the lake level rises in the Great Lakes and Champlain Valley. Of course the Ohio River and its tributaries feed the Mississippi and runoff into the Ohio River will slow the decline of river levels and produce a much smaller, secondary crest that runs down the river system at some point as the rains continue. A large section of Mississippi River is closed for barge traffic. The latest river forecast would keep the river closed for 8 days at Caruthersville, Missouri, with other closures possible as the water flows south to the Gulf. The Mississippi is a key transportation route for 500 million tons of cargo each year including chemicals, coal, oil, timber, iron, steel and more than half of the nation's grain exports. The Port of New Orleans is America's gateway to the global market. New Orleans has been a center for international trade since 1718 when it was founded by the French. Katrina disrupted transport for many weeks in 2005…

 

Impact: On May 7, 2011, WeatherBELL Analytics meteorologists discussed what was making 2011’s flood potentially the worst on record.  They compare the year 2011 to the year 1927 to help clients gain a better understanding of the forecast. Because the Mississippi River is a major transportation route, our meteorologists wanted our clients to be well informed of the effects the flooding would have on business. Understanding flooding is particularly important to our agriculture clients because of the impact on farmland. 


Severe Weather Outbreak Sat into Monday could total 50 or more tornadoes

April 7, 2011 09:48 AM

...A classic severe weather outbreak is looming, right at the time of the year and in the large scale signal pattern that is most likely for such a thing. The spring ideas had as a mainstay a marked increase in severe weather and drew major differences between last year and this year..last year perhaps being the most well behaved spring from the plains east in recent memory.. When it warms up to 6-10 above normal in the lakes and the gulf is cool, that is the result. No such luck this year.

In any case a look at the late Sunday 500 mb, 700mb, 850 mb, and surface charts catches the outbreak at what is likely to be near a peak time, with the squall line almost to the Mississippi by then from Iowa to Arkanas. A look:

…

Impact: Thursday, April 7, 2011, WeatherBELL meteorologists forecasted a severe weather outbreak Saturday into Monday that could total 50 or more tornadoes. From Saturday April 9 to Monday, April 11, a total of 57 tornadoes occurred from Wisconsin through Texas and east towards North Carolina. Our meteorologists were able to warn clients of a potential outbreak with two full days to prepare.


Big-Time La Nina Tornado and Flooding Season

March 11, 2011 04:07 PM

 

…Tornadoes tend to focus in the central and southern plains and the Gulf Coast during El Nino years, with a shift to the Midwest, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the mid-Atlantic region during La Nina years.

Cordell tornado, NSSL

The strengths of these cycles also seem to be a factor in this data as well. Tornadoes during a La Nina are stronger and remain on the ground longer than those observed during an El Nino. That means an increased danger of large destructive and deadly tornadoes during the cold phase. There is also an increased risk of  tornado swarms  or outbreaks of 40 or more twisters from a single weather system in a La Nina season.   We believe a recent climate shift favoring a cooler Pacific (negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO) and more frequent La Nina events suggests we have entered a period of increasing severe storms that could last a decade or more…

 Impact: The above blog was posted on March 11, 2011. WeatherBELL Analytics meteorologists anticipated an active tornado season in the Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the mid-Atlantic region. During the 2011 tornado season, major outbreaks occurred in the Midwest, mid-Atlantic region, and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys including, but not limited to, Alabama, Missouri, and Massachusetts. The accuracy of this forecast helped industries in these areas prepare for a vigorous season. They were able to understand their risks and manage their business accordingly.